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Post by uraniumplayer on Mar 16, 2021 18:41:39 GMT -5
In the UK, I see half of the people not wearing masks, like we are on the road to recovery. There is a new vaccine, and the lockdown on my mums nursing home has ended, so now I can go in to see her. In the F1 world, they are trying to bring back the sport, and slowly encourage fans back. There is no point fear mongering that the lockdowns will continue, as they have been proved to be completely ineffective in any case. JT got through this without so much as a cough, so I'd say its about time we stop the cancel culture and get back to having more babies, so the planet will become unsustainable. When we're all fighting for oxygen then you can tell me the show is cancelled. You wear a mask in confined public areas? If people in my place of work are not wearing masks inside confined areas (rest room, offices etc) they know about it very quickly. Lockdowns work! What doesn’t work is lifting the lockdowns too early! I can collate facts and figures if you need them? reason.com/2021/03/10/despite-its-much-stricter-covid-19-policies-californias-per-capita-death-rate-is-only-slightly-lower-than-floridas/
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2021 21:58:15 GMT -5
What a shoddy article that was - though given that it's a right wing libertarian website then what should be expected? Just to pull out 3 key pieces of (non-economic) evidence that the article's citing -
1. They've ignored that the table they've drawn the CDC figures from was both from September 2020, so before the California cases significantly rose... ...& that the explanation for that table that they've drawn the data from explicitly states that -
"Table 1. Parameter Values that vary among the five COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios. The scenarios are intended to advance public health preparedness and planning. They are not predictions or estimates of the expected impact of COVID-19. The parameter values in each scenario will be updated and augmented over time, as we learn more about the epidemiology of COVID-19. Additional parameter values might be added in the future (e.g., population density, household transmission, and/or race and ethnicity)." Where, i don't think that there'd be much doubt that an increase in population density will have a measurable effect on the spreading of an airborne virus... (there's not density data yet from the 2020 US census - however the 2010 census found urbanisation rates of 95% in California vs 91.2% in Florida)
2. Then the claim that -
"According to a Nature Human Behaviour study of 226 countries published in November, "a suitable combination of NPIs [nonpharmaceutical interventions] is necessary to curb the spread of the virus," but "less disruptive and costly NPIs can be as effective as more intrusive, drastic ones (for example, a national lockdown).""
- is completely misrepresented within context, since the data explicitly shows that the most effective interventions are -
- small gathering cancellation - closure of educational institutions - border restriction - increase availability of PPE - individual movement restrictions - national lockdown - mass gathering cancellation
- where, they are explicitly not stating that a laissez faire approach should be taken (like Florida) - but that their data (again prior to the winter surges) would indicate that it's possible to have restrictions short of a national lockdown which can have a significant effect.
3. & it's then interesting that the abstract for the latest working paper from the lead author from in the final paragraph; re the claim that - "In a 2020 National Bureau of Economic Research paper, UCLA economist Andrew Atkeson and two other researchers looked at COVID-19 trends in 23 countries and 25 U.S. states that had seen more than 1,000 deaths from the disease by late July. After finding little evidence that variations in public policy explained the course of the epidemic in different places, they concluded that the role of legal restrictions "is likely overstated."
- states that - "I find that most of the end-of-year surge in deaths in both the US and the UK was generated by pandemic fatigue and not the new variant of the virus. I then generate fore- casts for the evolution of the epidemic over the next two years with continuing seasonality, pandemic fatigue, and spread of the new variant."
So, 'if' the earlier findings that the impact of varying restrictions are overstated were to be believed, why would pandemic fatigue have any significant effect?
NB both working papers explicitly state that "NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications."... ...& so, whilst they 'may' be accurate to some measure, they're not necessarily great evidence.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2021 23:10:09 GMT -5
In the UK, I see half of the people not wearing masks, like we are on the road to recovery. There is a new vaccine, and the lockdown on my mums nursing home has ended, so now I can go in to see her. In the F1 world, they are trying to bring back the sport, and slowly encourage fans back. There is no point fear mongering that the lockdowns will continue, as they have been proved to be completely ineffective in any case. JT got through this without so much as a cough, so I'd say its about time we stop the cancel culture and get back to having more babies, so the planet will become unsustainable. When we're all fighting for oxygen then you can tell me the show is cancelled. You wear a mask in confined public areas? If people in my place of work are not wearing masks inside confined areas (rest room, offices etc) they know about it very quickly. Lockdowns work! What doesn’t work is lifting the lockdowns too early! I can collate facts and figures if you need them? i wholeheartedly agree John.
Yeah, clearly 'half the people in Accrington' are idiots - & certainly grocery shopping in Sheffield yesterday afternoon (& a couple of times last week & the week before &...) then i saw no one in a store without a mask.
Yeah, it's nice to see the evidence about lockdowns.
Well, to look at it another way (vs the response to uraniumplayer's US based article), with the UK dropping from a daily (7 day average) peak death rate of ~1284 on the 19th of January to ~126 on the 8th of March - that's in the order of a 92% drop... ...where, even if a single dose were to be 100% effective instantly - which is known to be nonsense in both regards... ...that percentage of people hadn't even had a single dose of a vaccine in the 65-69 age range, or for any age in the most deprived areas as of the 3rd of March ( www.bbc.com/news/health-55274833). So since the fall clearly can't solely be down to vaccination, what's the explanation?
...& the attacks on 5G towers here seem to have subsided after the middle of last year so it can't be that...
...so, ummm...?
Then it's good to know that because one uber rich & clean living white guy recovered then *everyone* will be fine. Yeah, clearly the ~126,000-147,000 (28 days vs on death certificate) deaths in the UK so far are just more fake news... ...or should it be the ~536,000 in the US, since that where he was? & i'm not quite sure what "cancel culture" has to do with the need for restrictions to reduce death rates... ...though i'm sure that a reduced ability to express obnoxious beliefs online will somehow be part of some truther belief in Bill Gates & his plans for mind control via forced vaccination or some such.
Back to the point of the thread though...
...don't get me wrong, unless something goes seriously awry in terms of vaccine supplies or variants, i'm 99% certain that full capacity concerts will sensibly be able to happen here from the beginning of July at the latest...
...though there's still no word that i've seen as to whether Duran will be playing the rescheduled isle of wight festival. However, be it from a variant of covid or the unknown long term efficacy of the vaccines - hence why the planning appears to be to offer a 3rd dose (be that a modified vaccine or just a booster) to the elderly from August... ...if the uptake of the vaccines isn't sufficient...
...or from other airborne viruses - where the immunity is much lower due to social distancing so the thinking is that we're likely to be hit hard over the winter... ...there is no certainty that there wouldn't *potentially* need to be the reintroduction of some restrictions this coming winter here. But, even if they had a crystal ball & knew that things in the UK would be fine, for Duran (or any band) to gear up for a world tour starting here this winter when there's so much uncertainty about where other countries will be would seem to make little financial sense.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2021 1:55:45 GMT -5
You wear a mask in confined public areas? If people in my place of work are not wearing masks inside confined areas (rest room, offices etc) they know about it very quickly. Lockdowns work! What doesn’t work is lifting the lockdowns too early! I can collate facts and figures if you need them? i wholeheartedly agree John.
Yeah, clearly 'half the people in Accrington' are idiots - & certainly grocery shopping in Sheffield yesterday afternoon (& a couple of times last week & the week before &...) then i saw no one in a store without a mask.
Yeah, it's nice to see the evidence about lockdowns.
Well, to look at it another way (vs the response to uraniumplayer's US based article), with the UK dropping from a daily (7 day average) peak death rate of ~1284 on the 19th of January to ~126 on the 8th of March - that's in the order of a 92% drop... ...where, even if a single dose were to be 100% effective instantly - which is known to be nonsense in both regards... ...that percentage of people hadn't even had a single dose of a vaccine in the 65-69 age range, or for any age in the most deprived areas as of the 3rd of March ( www.bbc.com/news/health-55274833). So since the fall clearly can't solely be down to vaccination, what's the explanation?
...& the attacks on 5G towers here seem to have subsided after the middle of last year so it can't be that...
...so, ummm...?
Then it's good to know that because one uber rich & clean living white guy recovered then *everyone* will be fine. Yeah, clearly the ~126,000-147,000 (28 days vs on death certificate) deaths in the UK so far are just more fake news... ...or should it be the ~536,000 in the US, since that where he was? & i'm not quite sure what "cancel culture" has to do with the need for restrictions to reduce death rates... ...though i'm sure that a reduced ability to express obnoxious beliefs online will somehow be part of some truther belief in Bill Gates & his plans for mind control via forced vaccination or some such.
Back to the point of the thread though...
...don't get me wrong, unless something goes seriously awry in terms of vaccine supplies or variants, i'm 99% certain that full capacity concerts will sensibly be able to happen here from the beginning of July at the latest...
...though there's still no word that i've seen as to whether Duran will be playing the rescheduled isle of wight festival. However, be it from a variant of covid or the unknown long term efficacy of the vaccines - hence why the planning appears to be to offer a 3rd dose (be that a modified vaccine or just a booster) to the elderly from August... ...if the uptake of the vaccines isn't sufficient...
...or from other airborne viruses - where the immunity is much lower due to social distancing so the thinking is that we're likely to be hit hard over the winter... ...there is no certainty that there wouldn't *potentially* need to be the reintroduction of some restrictions this coming winter here. But, even if they had a crystal ball & knew that things in the UK would be fine, for Duran (or any band) to gear up for a world tour starting here this winter when there's so much uncertainty about where other countries will be would seem to make little financial sense. Thanks for the links and in-depth analysis Tim! I know who to ask if I need any research instigated in the future! 🤣 I did forget to mention that it really isn’t half of the population not wearing masks - but it is enough to put a spanner in the works. Why can’t everybody just grow up and smell the coffee? I’ve a horrible feeling there will be more setbacks in light of the recent news from Europe.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2021 3:06:24 GMT -5
Thanks for the links and in-depth analysis Tim! I know who to ask if I need any research instigated in the future! 🤣 I did forget to mention that it really isn’t half of the population not wearing masks - but it is enough to put a spanner in the works. Why can’t everybody just grow up and smell the coffee? I’ve a horrible feeling there will be more setbacks in light of the recent news from Europe.
[Edit]
Sorry, it wasn't you who'd mentioned "half of the people not wearing masks" in the thread, but More Play Time...
Okay, i've noticed that you've commented on a lack of compliance before - but i think we're kind of agreed that there are certainly some 'Richards' out there... ...though almost certainly far fewer than the press likes to pretend when they want to outrage all of the good upstanding citizens.
[End Edit]
No worries... Yeah, i was going to post on the first comment before you had, but then changed my mind assuming that it wouldn't gain any traction... ...but clearly i was mistaken. Otherwise, two things to add to the previous post is that Sir/Dr David Spiegelhalter has been estimating an under-reporting of the ~126,000 "within 28 day deaths" of around 5-10% due to people dying having, for example, been in intensive care for longer than 28 days... (i've just managed to lose the reference) ...which puts his (expert) estimate of deaths between the two figures. Whilst he posted the following (logarithmic) graph on the 10th of February showing the drop from the peak (there's a known error in the titling as it should be 28 days) - Attachment Deleted- where, quite clearly, something has to be causing the drop in death rates that's not the vaccine since... ...(again) the vaccine doesn't act instantly... ...it was only on the 15th of February that people aged between 65 & 69 were first invited for vaccines so the drop for them can't be affected by it...
...&, whilst some NHS & care worker had been vaccinated by that point (which might account for a decline in the working population), i know that in Sheffield for people who actively wanted it they were still being vaccinated a week or two afterwards - where, quite clearly, those workers don't make up *that* big a proportion of the population, & there have been known issues, particularly with some BAME staff, of workers initially refusing to have it. So, to demonstrate that the lockdown has had a negligible effect someone would need to come up with an alternative reasonable hypothesis - where clearly neither vaccination nor herd immunity is the cause.
Otherwise, for those who are unaware, Sir David Spiegelhalter is probably the most widely known living statistician in the UK, being knighted for "services to statistics", is the Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge University, & is currently a member of the UK Statistics Authority - & has nothing at all to do with making policy.
indeed, it was he who called out the government on the dodgy 4,000 potential deaths graph presented in one of the public briefings at the beginning of November.
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Post by uraniumplayer on Mar 17, 2021 8:31:37 GMT -5
Thanks for the response, @pocketdemon, you read the article more thoroughly than I did.
I live in Connecticut, a “deep blue” state. We had a lockdown from 3/13/20 - early June, when reopening began. Since then, it’s been phased in...there was a slight dial back over the holidays, but as of 1/19 that lifted. On Friday, some further restrictions are lifting around indoor capacity, etc. My kids have been in school daily since September (10 yr old) or on a hybrid distance learning model (also since Sept) (11 yr old - 2 days in person, two days home, etc). Restaurants/ bars are open but glass / plastic barriers between tables. Bars that don’t serve food are still closed; mass gatherings obviously not allowed (I think 100 is the limit), but that is changing later this month.
My point in all of these details is that I think everyone’s definition of “lockdown” is different. I don’t believe what we’ve been through here in CT (at least since June) is anywhere close to the strict lockdowns many of you have had. There is a narrative here in the USA that the “red” states have been more permissive and stupid, while the blue states have been smarter and more restrictive. Maybe that is true on balance - or maybe the data is skewed by specific demographics of states, as you pointed out in your reply - all I know is that my “blue state” (and a governor I didn’t vote for, but will in 2022) has actually done a good job (in my opinion) of reacting to the facts on the ground and imposing restrictions, but lifting/relaxing them too, over time. In sharp contrast to the shit show in NY, another “smart” deep blue state directly to the south of me.
Bottom line, I supported the lockdowns then and now, but I also support constantly looking at their effectiveness and duration (component by component, and in relation to the economic impact). Because I feel like I live in a state that has gotten it right, and yet seems more permissive than some of the extreme examples of lockdowns.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2021 12:20:23 GMT -5
Thanks for the response, @pocketdemon , you read the article more thoroughly than I did. I live in Connecticut, a “deep blue” state. We had a lockdown from 3/13/20 - early June, when reopening began. Since then, it’s been phased in...there was a slight dial back over the holidays, but as of 1/19 that lifted. On Friday, some further restrictions are lifting around indoor capacity, etc. My kids have been in school daily since September (10 yr old) or on a hybrid distance learning model (also since Sept) (11 yr old - 2 days in person, two days home, etc). Restaurants/ bars are open but glass / plastic barriers between tables. Bars that don’t serve food are still closed; mass gatherings obviously not allowed (I think 100 is the limit), but that is changing later this month. My point in all of these details is that I think everyone’s definition of “lockdown” is different. I don’t believe what we’ve been through here in CT (at least since June) is anywhere close to the strict lockdowns many of you have had. There is a narrative here in the USA that the “red” states have been more permissive and stupid, while the blue states have been smarter and more restrictive. Maybe that is true on balance - or maybe the data is skewed by specific demographics of states, as you pointed out in your reply - all I know is that my “blue state” (and a governor I didn’t vote for, but will in 2022) has actually done a good job (in my opinion) of reacting to the facts on the ground and imposing restrictions, but lifting/relaxing them too, over time. In sharp contrast to the shit show in NY, another “smart” deep blue state directly to the south of me. Bottom line, I supported the lockdowns then and now, but I also support constantly looking at their effectiveness and duration (component by component, and in relation to the economic impact). Because I feel like I live in a state that has gotten it right, and yet seems more permissive than some of the extreme examples of lockdowns. Naturally both myself & More Play Time are in the UK - so, when we had a more localised tiered system at points last year, they were referred to as "lockdown restrictions"; irrespective of the level that any area was in...
...but i do accept your point that "lockdown" could mean different things to different people. More generally though, trying to separate out why outcomes may be different or very similar can be complex - where, along with seasonal swings & people's personal behaviour, the evidence strongly suggests that there's a whole set of demographic factors that contribute to the outcomes; beyond simply age... ...as well as geographical & infrastructure differences...
...& the capacity & affordability of health provision...
...& then naturally the political will to make certain decisions.
So, as mentioned in another thread, it's possibly only New Zealand who don't have significant lessons to learn from their response to the pandemic.
Now, clearly NZ is an extreme example - where, quite clearly, as a relatively small island nation (their total population would put them almost in the middle of the estimated 2020 US states) then their ability to control things is very different from a more populous country or state that's physically joined to others... (though i don't think that it can be discounted that Jacinda Ardern's approach to communicating with the population was significantly better than anywhere else)
...but i think it illustrates that what could be a workable level of lockdown restrictions for one place would either be under or overkill for another, or (assuming we're looking at relatively free states) practical for one but not for another.
So, i'm not convinced that your comparison of CT & NY is necessarily valid - as, not only are there quite different demographics & infrastructure &... ...but particularly because NY got things so badly wrong initially which led to it becoming significantly more endemic...
(see, for example, www.ft.com/content/a52198f6-0d20-4607-b12a-05110bc48723 - which, as a paper, tends to favour liberalism & free market economics over a strict right or left wing; so, whilst it has supported the Tories, Labour & the coalition for elections over the last 40 years, at the last election it endorsed no one - (particularly) due to the Tories' Brexit stance & Labour's lurch to the left) ...which then has knock on effect in trying to deal with things.
Hence, i do completely take your point that the level & lifting of restrictions in CT may well be appropriate for CT... (much as the current roadmap for lifting them in the UK seems to be reasonable - & hence the feasibility of gigs in July)
...but i don't think it's correct to say that CT's approach could have worked as effectively on a universal basis - which was, of course, the problem with the article that you'd linked to with CA & FL.
Then, with NY as an example, i fully acknowledge that it's not the case that the blue states were all paragons of common sense that cared for the population & the red ones foolhardy imbeciles who only cared about the almighty dollar at the expense of lives... ...but clearly, whatever the specific reason for any one death in any one state, the per capita death rate in the US isn't something to be proud of. [NB as an aside, it's not actually possible to directly compare countries because of differing methods of compiling & recording the statistics - so, simply as i'm more aware of the UK's statistics, it's recognised that our 28-day measure that's generally used by the government & the media to track things tends to count more deaths compared to many other countries, but also undercount the actual total due to the 28-day cut off.]
However, just to question things, whilst i'm certainly in no way suggesting that everyone who lives in a red state either is a Republican or that, irrespective of politics, everyone there would support no or very limited restrictions; or, indeed, that you won't have Democrat supporters who would rail against & ignore restrictions... ...isn't there still an issue that, with things being heavily politicised from the top last year in the US, there were increased levels of both state & personal decision making that weren't scientifically based?
Now, don't get me wrong here, as i've said before then i'm in no way suggesting that the UK got things right... ...&, whilst clearly we didn't have to, say, have the NHS warning people not to inject themselves with bleach thanks to our own great & fearless leader - both our countries had leaders who tried to downplay things - be that with British or American exceptionalism respectively...
...& the UK was also late to the game initially, in the autumn & for Xmas in terms of lockdown restrictions - though, over here it was increasingly more about dithering.
That's also not to say that both of our countries didn't get lucky on some things - as whilst it was Germany who predominantly funded the Pfizer vaccine & the UK (including charitable funding) Oxford University's initial research...
(Operation Warp Speed in the US only kicked in with the Oxford/AstraZeneca after it was in phase 2 trials in the UK - where the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences added funding over 2 months before the US did... ...& it didn't fund the Pfizer vaccine at all) ...both the US & UK took a major chance by pre-ordering stupid quantities of vaccines much earlier than many others; & it happens to have paid off.
Anyway, that's probably more than enough words about the stupid plague...
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Post by More Play Time on Mar 17, 2021 13:08:50 GMT -5
]And if they do wear masks they don't wear correctly..love the folks with masks below the nose..unreal! Yes, there is no point wearing a mask if your nose is hanging out of it. One sneeze and everyone will be looking at you. An issue is, the high vulnerable people like OAPs, kids and disabled are not wearing masks, while perfectly fit 20-40 year olds do wear then. I have worn a full N95 mask as soon as I step out of the door since April 2020, confined spaces or not. I think personal responsibility is the only way to make sure Im not a problem, and out of the equation. I agree that many are rescheduling for 2022 to be safer, as they think if half of the people will come out to see the shows in 2021, then surely more will come out in 2022. Thats false logic, as the virus isnt going to disappear and leave us 'back to normal', it's actually more widespread than ever, and might get worse. I say we could put the whole world on hold for 10 more years, putting the whole globe into debt, or we could just get on with it - even if that means 'Virtual' touring.
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Post by uraniumplayer on Mar 17, 2021 13:13:43 GMT -5
All valid points, @pocketdemon
Briefly: My NY comparison is a reference to the falsifying of the nursing home COVID deaths scandal.
I agree, conditions on the ground and many other factors that you cited would (hopefully) dictate a proper and effective response, which could vary from state to state or country to country.
US leadership was horrible on this, so no argument there, with the exception of "Operation Warp Speed" which is the one thing they did right.
Final point: When it comes to reopening schools, I will tout what we did in Connecticut. Parents had a choice to have their children distance learn or learn in-person. In my town, about 30% of the kids are distance learning; the rest are in person. Social distancing measures have been implemented in the classrooms (mask wearing, barriers between desks, keeping teachers and students in "cohorts," contact tracing when someone gets the virus.) This approach has largely worked; there have been instances where schools have had to shut down in-person learning because too many staff were quarantining. But the beauty of the cohort approach is that you initially just put a class into distance learning...not shut down an entire school..etc. During the school year, there has yet to be a case of transmission in the schools. They know this because there has never been two positive cases in any Cohort at the same time. In essence, the kids (or teacher) is getting it somewhere else and brining it into the schools...and the schools have been able to react quickly enough to ensure it doesn't spread any further. By way of reference our town has 10 elementary schools, 2 middle schools, 2 high schools. I hope that the new Education Secretary (Miguel Cardona, who is from the next town over from me, and whom I met a few years back (really nice guy) ) can push this approach nationwide.
Anyway, yes, too many words on a pandemic. I do appreciate the back and forth and your persecutive and data you've cited.
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karenduran
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Post by karenduran on Mar 17, 2021 15:05:22 GMT -5
I live in a “red” state with a smallish population, but the majority of that population in two big cities. I think the mask mandates in those two cities have worked wonders despite the governor opening things up early. I think rural folks do what they want in their own towns but have no choice but to wear masks when they come in to the city. People for the most part follow the rules, even if they don’t like them.
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